RedMeat Signal turns current beef prices, weaner value, feed costs, seasonal patterns, and weather risk into one practical weekly decision view.
Fetching the inputs needed for a consistent decision.
Checking the reviewed ENSO and South African seasonal outlook.
Important: the ENSO probability is not the probability of drought on your farm.Fetching market data…
Fetching margin data…
Calculating seasonal position…
You have 40 weaners averaging 230 kg ready to move. A local offer is R43/kg live. SA Maize is at R3 450/ton. The A2/A3 carcass price is R61/kg.
Weaner price is at 70% of A-grade carcass value — above the historical average. Finishing margins are negative at current feed costs. Market-ready animals should move now.
Holding weaners past peak ratio costs money. Seasonal demand typically softens after this period. The signal flags the window — you make the call.
Current week, data health, and primary decision-support recommendation will appear after source checks complete.
Refresh, review, and override source-backed market rows before they feed the public dashboard.
A practical beef market read for producers. It frames price discipline, risk, and timing. It is not a guaranteed forecast.
Every signal should be traceable to a source, cadence and age. Stale manual inputs are treated as a risk flag.
Use these analogs to explain how similar shocks have moved through the meat market before.
Weekly and monthly class price analysis — A2, A3, AB2, B2, C2 and weaners.
Source: rmis.co.za/prices ↗ (ABSA National Livestock Prices, updated Thursday)
Compare the current year's monthly prices against the previous 3 years.
Typical month-by-month price pattern (index: 1.0 = annual average). The red dot marks the current month.
Read from RMIS Prices ↗ (ABSA data, Thursday) · AMT Weekly ↗. Leave blank if not available.
Your entered weekly observations. These blend with the historical baseline in all charts above.
| Date | A2 Ox | A3 Ox | A2 Heif | Heads | AB2 | B2 | C2 | C3 | D2 | Weaners | Notes |
|---|
SA red meat price history with overlay variables and event markers.
Uses current weaner price, weaner:A-grade ratio, YoY momentum and season to find similar historical months and show what happened next.
Stored source snapshots from every price update for audits, commercial reporting, and long-term risk modelling.
| Period | SA beef change | Main Driver | Global Export |
|---|
Find historical periods most similar to the current trend and project what followed.
Correlation coefficients between key variables and SA beef price changes.
r values at Lag 0, 1, and 2 years. Lag 1 = variable leads beef by 1 year (predictive signal).
| Variable | r (Lag 0) | r (Lag 1 — predictive) | r (Lag 2) | Interpretation |
|---|
| Category | Events | Avg Beef Change % | Signal |
|---|
Stress-test market inputs, estimate downside and upside, and see which historical events aligned with price rises and falls.
Select risks that are active now. The historical event analysis below measures the selected cattle class separately because the same shock can lift carcass prices while weakening weaner bids.
Build a probability distribution from current market inputs, recommended scenario weights and historical analogues. Use this for downside, upside, and stress-risk decisions.
Capture market events and price observations for internal reporting and model review.
No entries yet. Log your first event above.
Generated — · Based on latest live prices · RedMeat Signal SA
Live weekly briefing built from the latest source rows, previous-row adjustments, ratio pressure, retain/finish economics and cull-cow context.
The ratio of weaner price to A2/3 slaughter price is a useful margin-pressure indicator. When weaners are expensive relative to slaughter cattle, finishing margins can compress and retaining discipline becomes more important.
SA weaner prices follow the same seasonal shape every year, driven by the autumn weaning flush. The index shows each month's price as a percentage of the annual average. May–June are consistently the weakest selling months; October–November the strongest.
Annual average weaner and A2/3 slaughter prices 2019–present, with W:A2/3 ratio and year-on-year change. Understanding the full cycle is the foundation of every other signal in this report.
Margin per head across a range of weaner opportunity values and maize prices. Assumptions: 200 kg own weaner, 480 kg exit weight (live), 56% dressing, 268.8 kg carcass, FCR 7.5 (2 100 kg feed), R1 800 overhead per head.
Four probability-weighted scenarios for the SA weaner market over the next 12 months, pattern-matched against historical cycles. The closest historical analogue is April–August 2021.
Start with the latest published beef outlook, then open the evidence and scenario controls only when you need them.
The current source inputs, scenario weights, and 3/6/12-month outputs will be preserved automatically. Add the judgement behind the change.
The ratio of weaner live price to A3 carcass price is the primary SA cattle cycle indicator.
| 🔴 > 0.70 | Expensive — correction risk |
| 🟡 0.58–0.70 | Neutral — fair value |
| 🟢 < 0.58 | Cheap — retain/hold signal |
Lists past months where the W:A2/3 ratio crossed the correction-watch threshold. Correction timing is measured from the first threshold hit.
| Hit date | Hit ratio | Peak | Cooled < 0.65 | Full correction < 0.58 | Weaner -10% |
|---|
Based on 11 years of SA price data. Red = historically weak (autumn flush). Green = historically strong.
Four scenarios weighted by probability. Base A3: — R/kg carc.
| Month | Season Index | Prob-Weighted A3 | Hard Corr | Base | Bull | Super | vs Current | Signal |
|---|
Compare a current cattle offer against market benchmarks and holding costs before deciding.
The only tool that gives a group-level sell-now versus retain-and-finish result.
The indicators that shape the weekly beef market signal.
Weekly report view for market decisions, board packs, and price discipline. Subscribe to receive this same weekly market report by email when the Wednesday price check runs.
This report is a live on-screen briefing. Treat it as a decision-support draft until source rows have been checked for the week.
RedMeat Signal SA tracks the age, source, and confidence status of each market indicator.
| Metric | Value | Source | Source Date | Last Checked | Age | Status | Confidence | Notes |
|---|
Signals are calculated indicators and scenario outlooks. Decision-support, not guaranteed predictions.
A2/A3 beef, C-grade cow prices, weaners, maize/feed pressure, slaughter pressure, disease risk, seasonal risk, and macro pressure such as USD/ZAR, oil, and inflation.
The app combines observed market values, week-on-week movement, price ratios, seasonal position, input-cost pressure, and source reliability to generate general sell, hold, retain, and caution signals.
Each metric is labelled fresh, ageing, stale, missing, manual, verified, conflict, or demo. Stale and fallback values remain visible so users can judge the risk.
Observed data comes from source rows or stored datasets. Calculated indicators are ratios and changes. Risk outlooks are directional and should be stress-tested against your own costs.
Retain margin = expected finished sale value - current sell-now opportunity value - feed/grazing cost - interest - transport and commission. The tool stress-tests feed cost, finished price, ADG, and days retained.
Confidence rises when data is fresh, the farmer enters a farm offer, local basis is known, and stress tests stay positive. Confidence falls when the decision relies only on national benchmarks or stale inputs.
Pattern and seasonal tools compare against stored monthly history, but the product should still be treated as decision-support until a full historical hit-rate and R/head outcome audit is published.
RedMeat Signal SA provides market information, calculated indicators, and general decision-support signals based on available South African red meat market data. The platform does not provide personalised financial, investment, legal, tax, or farm-specific consulting advice. Users remain responsible for their own cattle marketing, retaining, finishing, and selling decisions. Market data may be delayed, incomplete, revised, or subject to source limitations.
Start free with the weekly beef snapshot. Upgrade to Producer when you want the full sell, hold, retain, and forecast toolkit. Cancel anytime.
See where the market sits before you decide. No card required.
The full decision toolkit for producers, backgrounders and buyers.
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For consultants, agents, feedlots, abattoirs and teams using the platform on behalf of clients.
Reach beef and sheep producers through a clearly labelled sponsor placement in the weekly market report email, with optional province and producer-type targeting as the list grows.
Not ready to upgrade? Get the Wednesday market report by email and keep using the free market snapshot for as long as you like. Upgrade to Producer whenever you need the full toolkit.
Start with the free snapshot, or unlock the full producer toolkit for R199/month. Cancel anytime.
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South African red meat market intelligence — built by people in the industry, for people in the industry.
SA cattle producers make major marketing decisions every week — when to sell weaners, whether to retain and finish their own animals, and when to price culls — often on incomplete information. Prices circulate on WhatsApp. Auction reports come out days late. Input cost data sits in different spreadsheets. And the seasonal analysis that would tie it all together simply doesn't exist in one place.
The result: producers sell at the wrong time, retain animals on thin margins, and consultants spend hours every week gathering data manually instead of advising clients.
RedMeat Signal SA exists to fix that. One weekly read. Three clear signals. Decisions grounded in data.
We collect beef carcass prices, weaner prices, maize/feed context, Brent crude, Rand/USD, and inflation indicators from source rows where available, with manual verification where feeds are limited. Every value is timestamped and confidence-rated.
Three decision models run against the data: the weaner-to-A-grade ratio signal, the seasonal timing model, and the retain/finish opportunity-cost model. Each produces a clear SELL, HOLD, or RETAIN verdict with supporting reasoning.
The signals are decision-support, not instructions. You see the verdict, the reasoning, the data behind it, and the seasonal context — then you apply your own knowledge of your operation and make the call.
Every data point shows its source, timestamp, and confidence rating. You always know whether a value is live, verified, manual, or estimated — and why.
Every signal verdict shows its reasoning in plain language. The model logic is explained in the Methodology tab. Nothing is hidden behind an algorithm you can't interrogate.
When data is stale, estimated, or limited, we say so. A signal with incomplete data is flagged accordingly. We would rather show you a caveat than give you false confidence.
Seasonal patterns, FMD risk zones, El Niño cycles, load-shedding cost pressure, and the specific structure of the SA weaner and slaughter market are all factored in.
The South African red meat market is complex, cyclical, and deeply local. Price decisions are made weekly, often without access to the data that would make them better. We built RedMeat Signal SA because we lived that problem — and because the tools that existed were either too generic, too expensive, or not built for SA conditions.
This is an early-stage product. We're learning from every producer, backgrounder and consultant who uses it. If something is wrong, missing, or confusing — we want to hear it.
The weekly market snapshot is free to use. When you're ready for the full sell / hold / retain toolkit, Producer is R199/month and you can cancel anytime.
Pressure, seasonality, ratios and benchmark context. Use the Sell vs Retain Calculator for the final group decision.
A context-only break-even check for market reading. Use the Sell vs Retain Calculator for the actual group decision.
Enter inputs and click Calculate.
Aggregated realised farm-sale prices and weights from the benchmark workbook.
Fetching benchmark data…
Below 0.58 = cheaper relative to beef (retain signal); 0.58–0.65 = fair value; above 0.65 = expensive (correction risk).